The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a body of scientists, climate experts and governments that has been working on primarily understanding the accuracy and verifiability of climate change over the past few decades. A second goal is to understand the impacts of climate change on communities, citizens and countries. Finally, their role is to understand the timelines and reversibility of climate change, and how should communities, citizens and governments prepare for these changes.
A task force within IPCC is responsible for understanding how calculation of green house gas emissions should be done, and how should one correctly calculate removal of green house gases from the atmosphere.
The IPCC in it's 2022 meeting has assessed that the goal of limiting global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius cannot be achieved. In fact it's likely that we may even reach 2 to 2.5 degrees of warming of the planet.
This is an unprecedented situation. For the last 10,000 years, which is the bulk of the recorded history of human civilization, climate has been relatively stable. Forecast changes of average global temperatures by 1.5 to 2.5 degrees will cause unprecedented changes to all human communities around the world.
This blog will examine the actual impact of these changes and if and how some of these impacts can be mitigated. A second part is when these changes are unavoidable then how communities can prepare for these changes.
Impacts of a 1.5 degrees rise in temperature
The impact of a 1.5 degree rise in the average temperature of the planet will be based on where one is on the planet and also how vulnerable that part of the planet is. Several areas will also now experience more drought and dry conditions on account of rising temperatures.
Scientists now agree that for most locations on the planet, it will mean a rise in temperature as well as a rise in amount and intensity of rainfall or snowfall in that area. This will mean increase in flooding in many parts of the world. Another impact will be increase in mean sea level and therefore more coastal flooding. Melting of ice cover in the arctic would also mean higher sea levels. With temperature moving from 1.5 degrees to 2 degrees could mean moving from 1 ice-free Arctic summer per century to 1 ice-free Arctic summer per decade. Many island communities could disappear with greater increase in rise of mean sea levels.
Rising temperatures of water will mean more algal blooms, acidification of water which will also mean threat to fish populations and impact on livelihood of coastal communities. The loss of species will also impact land based ecosystems and will pose the threat of extinction of many species.
In addition rising temperatures would mean greater threat of forest fires around the world, a fact that already can be seen in the past few years all around the world.
What can individuals do?
Like was seen in the covid epidemic of 2020-2021, almost everything to manage and contain the looming disaster is in the hands of normal people. In the coming posts, we will examine some of these areas and initiatives that normal people like you and me can do to affect change and prepare for adversity.
