There are few secular trends that are happening and will perhaps accelerate in the coming years. These are as follows:
1. Per capita energy consumption in the developed world is decreasing
2. Per capita energy consumption in the developing world is increasing.
3. US and Canada are becoming the marginal producers of oil and natural gas for their markets.
4. Fossil fuels may eventually become a marginal source of energy for generating electricity
5. Renewables and Distributed generation will become increasingly important leading to re-design of grids.
6. Energy storage will become more important going forward.
The above are bold statements, and we will need justification as well as an understanding of the magnitude of the statements to understand their impact.
Here is a table that provides the overall trends
Aspect | Country | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
Total Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (Million Btu per Person) | United States | 326.46 | 308.24 | 316.95 | 312.81 | |
Canada | 407.86 | 391.11 | 385.10 | 396.56 | ||
China | 64.50 | 71.30 | 75.84 | 82.01 | ||
India | 17.45 | 18.51 | 18.69 | 19.85 | ||
World | 73.15 | 71.85 | 74.39 | |||
Total Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours) | United States | 4119.39 | 3950.33 | 4125.06 | 4100.14 | 4047.77 |
Canada | 621.74 | 596.75 | 585.11 | 622.98 | 644.08 | |
China | 3280.67 | 3507.51 | 3904.88 | 4490.54 | ||
India | 796.81 | 838.75 | 885.75 | 974.88 | ||
World | 19161.09 | 19062.32 | 20253.93 | 21080.88 | ||
Total Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours) | United States | 392.74 | 429.65 | 440.23 | 527.49 | 508.36 |
Canada | 381.46 | 379.47 | 366.29 | 398.46 | 406.20 | |
China | 596.79 | 639.28 | 770.92 | 800.97 | ||
India | 124.87 | 123.03 | 135.27 | 160.36 | ||
World | 3731.93 | 3871.43 | 4177.06 | 4402.43 | ||
Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours) | United States | 254.83 | 273.45 | 260.20 | 319.36 | 276.24 |
Canada | 370.55 | 364.96 | 347.84 | 371.93 | 376.21 | |
China | 579.34 | 609.48 | 713.79 | 690.61 | 856.35 | |
India | 109.14 | 103.17 | 113.28 | 129.36 | 114.50 | |
World | 3171.51 | 3224.82 | 3412.16 | 3471.62 | ||
Wind Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours) | United States | 55.36 | 73.89 | 94.65 | 120.18 | 140.82 |
Canada | 3.71 | 6.64 | 9.56 | 19.69 | 23.07 | |
China | 14.80 | 26.90 | 44.62 | 73.20 | ||
India | 13.70 | 17.80 | 19.91 | 26.00 | ||
World | 220.30 | 276.05 | 341.53 | 446.33 | ||
Solar Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours) | United States | 0.86 | 0.89 | 1.21 | 1.82 | 4.33 |
Canada | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.46 | 0.54 | |
China | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.94 | 3.00 | ||
India | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
World | 11.88 | 19.76 | 31.22 | 58.74 | ||
Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day) | United States | 19497.97 | 18771.40 | 19180.13 | 18882.07 | 18490.22 |
Canada | 2224.94 | 2162.92 | 2264.58 | 2266.05 | 2280.76 | |
China | 7467.52 | 8539.73 | 9330.18 | 9852.08 | 10276.83 | |
India | 2864.00 | 3112.74 | 3255.39 | 3410.54 | 3621.75 | |
World | 84696.92 | 84917.65 | 87527.35 | 88743.91 | 89406.61 | |
Total Oil Supply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) | United States | 8563.60 | 9133.80 | 9684.53 | 10136.21 | 11104.51 |
Canada | 3343.58 | 3318.83 | 3441.73 | 3597.33 | 3856.44 | |
China | 4036.67 | 4067.54 | 4362.66 | 4346.98 | 4372.45 | |
India | 874.97 | 873.59 | 965.30 | 995.81 | 990.18 | |
World | 85438.91 | 84592.52 | 87157.80 | 87572.88 | 89292.49 |