Energy Trends in 2014 and beyond

I am no expert in energy, but the whole energy industry is undergoing a quiet transformation. It is very important to understand these changes as it will impact everyone for years to come.

There are few secular trends that are happening and will perhaps accelerate in the coming years. These are as follows:

1. Per capita energy consumption in the developed world is decreasing
2. Per capita energy consumption in the developing world is increasing.
3. US and Canada are becoming the marginal producers of oil and natural gas for their markets.
4. Fossil fuels may eventually become a marginal source of energy for generating electricity
5. Renewables and Distributed generation will become increasingly important leading to re-design of grids.
6. Energy storage will become more important going forward.

The above are bold statements, and we will need justification as well as an understanding of the magnitude of the statements to understand their impact.

Here is a table that provides the overall trends

Aspect	Country	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Total Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (Million Btu per Person)	United States	326.46	308.24	316.95	312.81
	Canada	407.86	391.11	385.10	396.56
	China	64.50	71.30	75.84	82.01
	India	17.45	18.51	18.69	19.85
	World	73.15	71.85	74.39
Total Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours)	United States	4119.39	3950.33	4125.06	4100.14	4047.77
	Canada	621.74	596.75	585.11	622.98	644.08
	China	3280.67	3507.51	3904.88	4490.54
	India	796.81	838.75	885.75	974.88
	World	19161.09	19062.32	20253.93	21080.88
Total Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours)	United States	392.74	429.65	440.23	527.49	508.36
	Canada	381.46	379.47	366.29	398.46	406.20
	China	596.79	639.28	770.92	800.97
	India	124.87	123.03	135.27	160.36
	World	3731.93	3871.43	4177.06	4402.43
Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours)	United States	254.83	273.45	260.20	319.36	276.24
	Canada	370.55	364.96	347.84	371.93	376.21
	China	579.34	609.48	713.79	690.61	856.35
	India	109.14	103.17	113.28	129.36	114.50
	World	3171.51	3224.82	3412.16	3471.62
Wind Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours)	United States	55.36	73.89	94.65	120.18	140.82
	Canada	3.71	6.64	9.56	19.69	23.07
	China	14.80	26.90	44.62	73.20
	India	13.70	17.80	19.91	26.00
	World	220.30	276.05	341.53	446.33
Solar Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours)	United States	0.86	0.89	1.21	1.82	4.33
	Canada	0.07	0.13	0.19	0.46	0.54
	China	0.15	0.39	0.94	3.00
	India	0.02	0.02	0.02	1.00	1.10
	World	11.88	19.76	31.22	58.74
Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)	United States	19497.97	18771.40	19180.13	18882.07	18490.22
	Canada	2224.94	2162.92	2264.58	2266.05	2280.76
	China	7467.52	8539.73	9330.18	9852.08	10276.83
	India	2864.00	3112.74	3255.39	3410.54	3621.75
	World	84696.92	84917.65	87527.35	88743.91	89406.61
Total Oil Supply (Thousand Barrels Per Day)	United States	8563.60	9133.80	9684.53	10136.21	11104.51
	Canada	3343.58	3318.83	3441.73	3597.33	3856.44
	China	4036.67	4067.54	4362.66	4346.98	4372.45
	India	874.97	873.59	965.30	995.81	990.18
	World	85438.91	84592.52	87157.80	87572.88	89292.49