The Logic of Failure

 "The Logic of Failure" is an interesting book by Dietrich Dorner that examines cases where seemingly competent people make errors in judgement and decisions when underlying system is complex and multi-faceted. In such cases, variables may be interconnected in complex ways often made up of multiple feedback loops. Add to it time delays between action and reaction along each feedback loop and people get gob-smacked by outcomes that they did not foresee.

While the author's premise is based on Systems Theory, and numerous authors and experts have written treatises on it, what makes the book interesting is the vantage point from which the book is written. Rather than a passive observer or an academic, the book looks at a complex situation from the perspective of an active participant whose actions are likely to impact the outcomes observed in the system.

The approach then suggested is how one should conduct themselves in such situations. The author proposes a 5 step process in how one should go about conducting themselves in such a situation.

1. Formulate clear goals
2. Formulate models and gather information
3. Prediction and Interpolation
4. Planning of actions, decision making and execution of actions
5. Review of effects of actions and review of strategy

By iterating on each of the above steps constantly and at short regular intervals, the author claims that participants can avoid failures and ensure successful outcomes. The above message is further illustrated through a series of experiments where decision makers of different skill and experience level are taken through simulations where they make multiple decisions along the way. Successful participants learn from their decisions and constantly adjust their decisions based on what they learn, where as unsuccessful participants usually learn poorly from their early decisions and instead find themselves in deeper and deeper trouble.